Back in June, Sam Rainer posted an article titled “The Disappearance of the 30-Something and 40-Something Pastor (Here’s Why).” In that article, Rainer explained that the median age of a pastor in the United States is nearing 60 years old. This increase has outpaced the median age of the US population, which has increased from 28.1 in 1970 to 38.8 in 2021 – that’s an increase of 10.7 years over a 51 year period. By comparison, the average age of a pastor in the US was 44 in 1992, and it was north of 57 in 2021 – that’s an increase of 13 years over a 29 year period. Two years later, this number has moved closer to 60.

What Rainer reports statistically is confirmed anecdotally. There are regions and communities all across the US where pastorless churches outnumber pastored churches, and those churches without a pastor are struggling to find young, qualified candidates who are interested in pastoring established churches. In my own region and community (the Permian Basin in west Texas), we have many churches struggling to find young, qualified candidates who are willing to move to our area and pastor churches in our area. Again, this is anecdotal information, but many churches in the Permian Basin have pastors who are well past retirement age. These are faithful, godly men, but they are pastoring well into their seventies, eighties, and even nineties!

How did we get to this point? Why is the average age of pastor in the US quickly moving toward retirement age? Why are their fewer young pastors than there were in the past? I think there are several factors contributing to this crisis.

• One, pollsters have consistently reported a generational decline in church attendance as you move from Boomers to Gen-X to Millennials (see this Gallup story, or this Pew story). If we have fewer Millennials in church, it should not surprise us that there are fewer Millennial pastors. These two issues are obviously related.
• Two, for many years, researches told us that larger churches were getting larger and smaller churches were getting smaller. There is growing evidence that this trend has shifted, and there is clear evidence that smaller churches are growing in number (even if they aren’t growing in size). However, the proliferation of mega-churches through the 80s, 90s, and 00s clearly had an impact on the church landscape in the US. If fewer people are attending church period, and several thousand are attending one particular church, that likely means small and medium sized churches suffered. This dynamic surely resulted in fewer entry-level pastoral positions as smaller churches closed because of waning attendance.
• Three, the last 20 years has witnessed the rise of the multi-campus model of church. Streaming technology allowed large congregations to have multiple locations that simply piped in the sermon from the main campus. Clearly, this model of church growth reduced the number of opportunities for younger men to preach and pastor as one, main preaching pastor preached to multiple locations through the miracle of the internet.
• Four, unbiblical and dysfunctional ecclesiology is unattractive to many younger pastors. Personally, I knew lots of young men who wanted to pastor churches during my time at seminary. Many of these qualified candidates simply passed on opportunities to pastor because they believed the ecclesiology of a particular church was equal parts unbiblical and dysfunctional. These men made the decision to not pastor over pastoring a church that they saw as a certain source of conflict.
• Five, finances have contributed to this crisis on both ends of the age spectrum. On the older side, many older pastors simply cannot afford to retire, so they continue serving in their roles. On the younger side, many young men simply decide they cannot afford to take a job in a small, struggling church that won’t be able to pay much and may not be able to meet budget. These two issues result in older pastors staying pastor retirement age and younger pastors passing on opportunities.
• Six, Sam Rainer and Josh King have argued that loneliness is a factor in many young pastors exiting pastoral ministry early in their ministry career. Rainer and King talked about this issue in a recent episode of the EST Podcast. Their observations were anecdotal rather than statistical, but they confirm what I have heard from many men who pastor small churches.

Clearly there are a number of factors that brought us to this point. The question is, what do we do now that we’re here? Collectively, how should Christians and churches proceed knowing that the average age of pastor is rapidly increasing and knowing that there are fewer young pastors coming behind the old guard? How can churches be proactive in this crisis?

• First, churches should not waste time blaming the younger generation, and they should not try to pin the blame on seminaries. Instead, churches should work to train up and raise up pastors from within their own ranks. Seminaries are a helpful part of preparation for pastoral ministry. Personally, I can’t imagine doing my job without seminary. However, in the plan and the providence of God, it is the local church’s job to raise up pastors – not academic institutions.
• Second, church mergers can allow two or more struggling churches to come together and offer an attractive salary to a younger pastoral candidate. Pastoral ministry requires an incredible amount of time, both for full-time pastors and bi-vocational pastors. The fact of the matter is many young men are not interested in sacrificing their family and their financial future to serve a small, unhealthy, dying church that is not able to pay a reasonable salary. Mergers can allow smaller churches to reduce expenses and combine resources so that a younger pastor can be paid a reasonable salary.
• Third, a change in ecclesiology would have tremendous impact on the ability of small and medium sized churches to navigate this crisis. In this point, I’m mostly thinking about my own convention, the SBC. Most of the small, struggling churches in the SBC have unbiblical and dysfunctional ecclesiology. The system of a single, senior pastor who preaches via screen to multiple campuses will not result in more young men wanting to pastor. Likewise, the system of a single senior pastor struggling against an entrenched deacon board in a small, struggling church is the path to death, not life. Instead, mega churches should turn their campuses into autonomous local churches led by a team of qualified elders (pastors, overseers). Likewise, small struggling churches should embrace the biblical model of a plurality of qualified elders (pastors, overseers) leading the church. This shared model of pastoral leadership makes bi-vocational work possible, and it also reduces the idea that only one man is qualified to preach to multiple campuses via a screen.
• Fourth, we should be on our knees in prayer, earnestly asking the Lord of the harvest to send more laborers into the field (Luke 10:2). Perhaps we have not because we ask not (James 4:2-3). Ultimately, it is God and God alone who can call out qualified men to lead his church. May the Lord give us such men and more men to lead his church.